Potential vs Probability

I've talked a lot about probability and how important it is when building a list and making decisions in game. However, potential is something that is often more difficult to interpret, because it relies on you going against the expected value.

Potential has less of a significance in list building but there are certain cases in which it can be utilised. Generally units that rely on potential are referred to as fear factor units, and it is the basis of deathstars. Deathstars in itself don't go against the expected value, they have the ability to dish out a lot of damage and soak up some in return. However, if you consider the entire game as one big probability tree, relying on single units can start to turn slightly risky. That's why nobody advocates pure deathstar lists, you always need supporting units. This leads to an interesting playstyle. We can take the American ETC 2012 Ork list as an example (I believe the guy also won the ESC). It's a green tide with a big squad of nob bikers and warbosses. He forces his opponent to deal with the deathstar (and pretty fast) whilst the 120 or so boys push up and are still a problem to your opponent. Your opponent has to destroy that unit because it has the potential to rip his entire army apart.

This can also be utilised on a smaller scale with units such as leman russ executioners or shokk attack guns. They aren't so crazy, but still something your opponent has to play against (e.g. spread out his units to minize the amount of hits) because they can potentially harm him pretty bad. It's a fine line between having a good potential unit and a shit army. Still, it's good not to be too fixated on pure probability.

In game decision making is even more linked with potential. There are always the "easier" options, and I see people often advocating destroying the easy targets first with target priority. However, in my opinion the probability of success should always be contrasted with the benefit of a given outcome. I played a game against Jabbdo a couple of days ago where I forced a morale test on his destroyer lord and immortals. He failed ld10 twice in a row and ran off the table. Then I was able to use his scarabs as a springboard for troops and coupled with deepstriking reserves I was suddenly all over his objectives. The destroyer lord and 10 extra immortals might have made all the difference. Now I was able to win with max points.

It wasn't very likely that he would fail ld 10 twice in a row, but what did I lose by trying? A couple of random shots that probably would have killed the same amount of models from other units. It's good to know your probability but you shouldn't read it like the bible. There are other factors that should be weighing in on your decisions.

NEC+GK: Project New Dawn

With my own models, speedpainting is my best friend. Lately I've been thinking about a necron + gk list. It's kinda hard to justify fluff wise an ordo xenos inquisitor allying with necrons. He's just some radical inquisitor. Here's the list.

PLAYER NAME: Aleksi Lehtiö

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PRIMARY DETACHMENT: Necrons

HQ1: Vargard Obyron, warlord = [160pts]

TROOP1: 10 Necron Immortals, tesla carbines = [170pts]

TROOP2: 10 Necron Immortals, tesla carbines = [170pts]

TROOP3: 10 Necron Immortals, tesla carbines = [170pts]

TROOP4: 5 Necron Warriors = [65pts]

FA1: 6 Canoptek Scarabs = [90pts]

HS1: Annihilation Barge, tesla cannon = [90pts]

HS2: Annihilation Barge, tesla cannon = [90pts]

HS3: 2 Canoptek Spyders = [100pts]

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SECONDARY DETACHMENT: Grey Knights

HQ1: Ordo Xenos Inquisitor, rad grenades, psychotroke grenades, psychic communion = [85pts]

ELITE1: Psyker, 2 Warrior Acolytes = [18pts]

TROOP1: 10 Strike Marines, 2 psycannons, psybolt ammunition = [240pts]

FA1: 10 Interceptors, 2 psycannons, psybolt ammunition = [300pts]

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FORTIFICATIONS:

Aegis Defence Line, quad-gun = [100pts]

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TOTAL = [1848pts]

A couple of things I've been thinking of. First, it's always a good thing to have some blasts. This is something people were already saying in 5th, but with random charge distances short range infantry would really rather bunch up to get everything in range, trying to minimize the risk of getting charged. Blasts can hurt that. Second, I have the interceptors and obyron's squad that can move up t1 pretty much anywhere and go for first blood. I'm really mainly worried with how the list will cope with proper flyer spam. Played one game against a ba double raven list but my quad gun exploded one raven when they entered and my opponent couldn't roll 2d6 armour pen with his multimelta, so the game ended pretty brutally. Need to do some further testing but I like the moblity (for firstblood, linebreaker and to counter tanking characters). It also has some interesting elements, not being too one dimensional (even though it's a pretty clear shooty list).

How many flyers should I take?

Pic has nothing to do with the post this time, but another comissioned Ultramarine model I did.

Still haven't played enough 6th but after a big tournament in Finland (Turku Fanatic) something can be said about the meta we have and how we could possibly counter it. This led me to thinking about flyers. Flyers were in 2 of the top three armies (the third army being Joo-o with his 27 or so screamers).

In my opinion, if you have an army that can deal with flyers without having any flyers of its own, you're in a much better position to win the game. 3 decked out gunboat gk stormravens dish out a lot of shots, but you probably have 1-2 turns time to shoot at the other guy when he has less stuff on the table. This means that 100% of your army is fighting about 50% of your opponents. If you can put a dent in him in the early turns you might be at an advantage.

The problem is that most lists in Turku Fanatic were not very active early in the game. I was actually talking about this with a fellow ETC player today, considering DE Venomspam as a pretty nice counter to the current meta. This means that most players will want to go second and that flyer armies aren't hit hard early on when they still don't have their stuff on the table. Consider more mobility. Consider, dare I say, transports. Just do what GK did in 5th. Drive up 6" and disembark 6". You're more likely to be in range early on. Or if you can, buy long ranged weaponry. I might be completely wrong but I thought I should write up something after being awol for so long, and wanted to add a new point of view for the internet.